Red/Blue Vote — Expected Utility Calculator

N people secretly press red or blue. If strictly more than 50% press red, everyone who pressed blue dies. Otherwise (≥50% blue), nobody dies. What should you press?

Population size Value of another's life vs your own (%) Expected mean blue vote share, μ (%) Std. deviation of blue vote share, σ (%) People correlated with you (incl. yourself)

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Recommended vote across all (μ, σ)

Holds N, v, k fixed at the values above. The marker shows the current (μ, σ).

100% σ 0%

0% μ 100%

RED by ≥1 ← tied → BLUE by ≥1 ○ current (μ, σ)

Show the math